Re: 2013 Baseball Thread
Posted: July 20, 2013 11:15 pm
by CaptainP
OK, by request....
My pre-season predictions, with notes about how they are looking in RED.
Also, my predicitons for the rest of the way will appear in BLUE.
AL EAST
This is going to be a tough division to call this year. The Red Sox are rebuilding. The Orioles are coming off of a magical run, and probably are due for a regression, despite a lot of talent. The Jays went all-in during the off-season. The Rays continue to make smart moves, but are young. And the Yankees are actually being budget-conscious. It was tough to call. The Sox were a surprise, and are clinging to a small lead. Only the Jays are really out of it right now. I didn't get a whole lot right here.
1. Orioles. There are a lot of free-swingers here, but they can really hit. My concerns with the Orioles are with that underwhelming rotation. Good pitchers, but not the type that can take you to the next level. But I think they have enough bats and bullpen to make up for it. And Matt Weiters. They haven't been as good as I expected, but I think the reason they aren't in first where I predicted has more to do with the Sox and Rays than it has to do with the Orioles. My predictions here were pretty spot-on.
2. Blue Jays. They made a ton of moves to get competitive. The lineup is formidable, and the rotation, on the surface, is fantastic. But I look at Johnson, Buehrle, and Dickey and just have to expect multiple DL trips. Building a team like this was the Marlins’ strategy last year (heck, half the players came from there!) Didn’t work for Miami, probably won’t work here. But they are much improved, and could take this division. That line about "probably won't work here" was the most accurate part of this prediction. Should have listened to myself!!!
3. Rays. Love my Rays. I’m probably underestimating them. This rotation may be the best in all of baseball, despite trading away James Shields. But that lineup is not confidence-inspiring. They’ll miss Upton more than anyone realizes. Too many journeyman types. I was right. I underestimated them. The pitching, despite Price not being himself and Shields being gone, is still dominant. They've been the best team in baseball in July so far.
4. Yankees. I originally had them up in 2nd place in this division…yes they are old, but they always find a way. But the injuries are really piling up, and they actually seem committed to a budget, so they may not just go out and buy the replacements for Grandy/Tex/etc. They could struggle. Spot on with this prediction. Spot on.
5. Red Sox. They’re rebuilding so this won’t be a surprise if I’m right. It also won’t be a surprise if I’m wrong. Yep. I was wrong.
For the second half, I see the Sox fading away. The Rays are really on a roll right now, but I still don't see them sustaining it. Baltimore will win the division...I'm sticking to that.
1. Orioles
2. Rays
3. Red Sox
4. Yankees
5. Blue Jays
AL CENTRAL
This division, to me, is two teams. And not the two you might think. The White Sox are worse than advertised, the Royals will finally break through. Two teams who are looking disastrous to me. I was right about the Tigers, wrong about the Royals, and never even considered Cleveland...Francona really is that good!
1. Royals. I’m going out on a limb here, but am sticking to my guns. 3 years ago, I predicted that the Royals would be a playoff team by 2013. I’m staying with it. The prospects have hit the bigs, and they went out and bought pitching. Shields/Santana/Guthrie/Davis/?. Maybe not the best rotation out there, but good enough. The fast start in the spring has told me that I could be right on this one. A lot of future all-stars in the lineup. I still believe this. But perhaps 2013 was too soon? They need to fire Yost and get a better leader.
2. Tigers. They’re still pretty damned good, but I’m feeling a fade coming off the WS appearance. I’ve been wrong on them every year, though…they’ll probably run away with the division. I just don’t love the pitching after Verlander. Scherzer walks too many, Sanchez pitched above his head last year, and Fister will always be immortalized by being traded for Charlie Furbush (yes, the legendary Fister/Furbush trade). If Rondon comes through as the closer, I could be wrong…either way, I think the Royals will be in the playoffs as a wildcard. I was WAY wrong on Scherzer. This team is solid and will win the division.
3. White Sox. Good, not great rotation. Good pen. A lot of middle-of-the-road type of offensive players. Just don’t impress me. This team screams mediocracy. Chris Sale could win the Cy Young, though. They have been so much worse than I thought, but in my defense, I don't think anyone predicted them to be in dead last. I said mediocre. At this point, they would LOVE mediocre.
4. Indians. They went and spent some money in Free Agency, but it seems like they did it without a plan. What is the identity of this team? Swisher will struggle away from the Little League ballpark in the Bronx, Bourne will steal a lot of bases, but who will knock him in? Granted, there is young talent here, and more on the way, but this team needs an identity. The rotation is terrible. Justin Masterson is your ace? Wow. I was very wrong. The pieces have fit nicely, and they have stayed in contention. I see a second-half slide, but they're better than I thought. Francona is great.
5. Twins. Another team with no identity. Mauer & Morneau & who? Trevor Plouffe? The man with the frying pan where his glove should be? Or is it Jamey “I broke in with the Expos” Carroll? The rotation is underwhelming. The pen is underwhelming. I can’t see this team going anywhere. I was very right on this one...but the Sox have kept them from the basement. For now.
The Tigers will run away with this. The White Sox will play better. For the most part, I don't see too much movement in these standings.
1. Tigers
2. Indians
3. Royals
4. White Sox
5. Twins
AL WEST
Welcome to the AL, Houston Astros!!! Prepare to lose a LOT of games!!! Of course, you’re used to that…. I see the Angels running away with this division if the pitching holds up. All of the other teams are flawed. I really have to stop buying into the "Superteams". It just doesn't work in this day and age, to go and buy all the talent. Angels have not lived up to expectations. I was wrong, also, about a Rangers fade. I didn't get a lot right in this division. Except the Astros suckitude.
1. Angels. Interesting approach….buy all the players in the league, then go cheap and re-sign Mike Trout for only $550,000? Trout will get paid soon enough, though…but my opinion is that 2012 will end up being the best season of his career. Just a feeling, but those who are expecting him to go 50/50 while hitting .350, no. He’s great, but he’s not a God. Either way, the pitching is a weak spot in Anaheim…but good enough to take the division. Offensively/defensively…they could be the best in baseball. Hamilton has been awful for the money. A slow start from Trout. Pujols having his worst season, by far. They are still talented, but when Scoscia was winning titles, he had young, scrappy teams, not rich, overpaid veterans. Not the wrong manager for the team...it's the wrong team for this great manager.
2. Athletics. This team played above their heads last year. Beware players like Brandon Moss, who had a career year after years of suckitude. This is a team with lots of those guys who came out of nowhere last year. Most will return to nowhere. Yes, there is talent here, but the “Moneyball” approach doesn’t sustain greatness, it only allows a team to jump up and bite once in a while. I give them second place based only on the teams around them.Again, I was wrong...but I still am not convinced. Maybe I should be, but I'm not. They've been good, though.
3. Rangers. This is a team on the decline. They failed to sign any of the big free-agents that they pursued, and lost Josh Hamilton in the process. Too many players leaving. But Rangers fans can rest assured, the minors are deep and the Rangers will return to the playoffs soon…but brace for an off year.Or not. They seem to have skipped the off-year. This team is not only still good, but they are set for the future.
4. Mariners. For years, I’ve thought this team was on the verge of a breakthrough. I’m willing to give up that feeling. They just aren’t that good. Jack Z. has put together a great minor league system, like he did in Milwaukee, but his moves at the Major League Level have not panned out. But the young talent is coming soon….and they have pitching in the minors that should dominate soon. But for now, it’s King Felix and the 4 banana brothers. Got this one right, mostly. They'll be better soon, but for now, there is only one thing keeping them from the basement...Houston.
5. Astros . I feel more confident with this pick than any other I am making. After being the worst team in baseball for the last 2 years, they actually CUT payroll!!! Opening Day payroll projects out at slightly higher than the federally mandated minimum wage….only about 3 players here that will be in the majors by 2015. The present is ugly. The future is ugly. I hope they have a plan. They have been way better than I expected, and still have the worst record in baseball. That should say something.
I see the Rangers overtaking an Oakland team that fades. I think the Angels will be better, but not up to pre-season expectations.
1. Rangers
2. A's
3. Angels
4. Mariners
5. Astros
NL EAST
Both the Nats and the Braves could win 100 games this year. This should be an interesting race. I went back and forth on who to put in first, but you can’t go wrong either way. Washington has disappointed, but are still in the race. The Braves raced out to a lead, and have maintained it. The surprise here, other than the Nats struggles, has been the Phillies staying close. It won't continue.
1. Nationals. A disappointing end in the playoffs last year should just make them hungrier. Strassburg with no restrictions. If Gio is the same pitcher, they have the best 1-2-3 combo in baseball (along with Jordan Zimmerman). If Haren can bounce back, they’ll top the Rays for best rotation. While I’m not a fan of Detwieler, you can do worse as a 5th starter. The lineup is solid, Harper will improve. Suzuki may be the only hole in the batting order, and he’s not that terrible. Bet on them. They're better than they've played, but I was wrong about a 100-win season. They'll improve in the second half, but won't overtake Atlanta.
2. Braves. This team is good. I considered giving them the division, but Washington’s rotation convinced me otherwise. The Upton Brothers should be a good fit at Turner Field. The rest of the lineup is fantastic. The pitching is good (not as good as the Nats, but very good). The best bullpen in baseball. I was right on this one, and nearly predicted them in first place. I should have.
3. Phillies. The pitching is getting older, but still good enough to take third, as the rest of the division falls off quickly. Lee can still dominate, Halliday will still have his moments. But the ace here is now Hamels. Still, it’s a great 1-2-3 punch. Too bad that the aging lineup just can’t stay healthy, and even when they are, Rollins/Utley/Howard…just not what they used to be. They miss Werth and Victorino. Chooch is fantastic behind the plate, but starts the season with a 25-game suspension. I wasn't that far off here, but this team is still old. They miss Halladay. Still, tied for 2nd at this point, better than expected!
4. Mets. They could easily end up in last place, but the Marlins seem pretty determined to get there. I say it every year, the Mets are a Mess. But every year, they manage to make a run for a few weeks and give hope. But there just isn’t that much here. Look at the starting OF…Duda/Neuwehhuis/Baxter. What is that? No, beyond Wright and Davis, there just isn’t much here. I do think Johan will have a decent bounceback season, but it won’t be enough. Wrong on Johan, right on a lot of other stuff. I liked Harvey coming in, but didn't see him doing THIS well. But I was right with the 4th place prediction.
5. Marlins. If Giancarlo Stanton can hit 324 home runs this season, they’ll have a shot. Stanton is the only thing keeping them above the Astros for worst in baseball at this point. Security at the stadium should be told to shoot Jeffrey Luria on sight. Dead on. Guess I'm better at recognizing bad teams than I am with good ones!
Not much will change here in the second half, unless the Phillies decide to sell at the deadline. The Nationals will be better, and overtake them for 2nd regardless...but the Phillies could fade into Mets territory if they sell off Papelbon, Lee, and others...
1. Braves
2. Nationals
3. Phillies
4. Mets
5. Marlins
NL CENTRAL
Once again, I am forced to try to temper my fandom for the Brewers and predict based upon the on-field talent. There are 4 really good teams here….OK, I missed out on predicting how bad the Brewers would be, but I will defend that prediction below. I underestimated St. Louis and Pittsburgh. I overestimated Cincy. In short, I sucked.
1. Reds. I always hate giving them credit, but they are the best team here. Not by as much as most think, but they are. There are holes. Cueto is great, but the rest of the rotation are good, not great. Votto/Bruce/Phillips are great, but the rest of the bats are good, not great. But Jonathan Broxton closing? Not wise. I see JJ Hoover taking over mid-season. This team is the best in the division, but vulnerable.OK, in honesty, I wasn't really wrong on the Reds. I just underestimated the opposition. I did make this prediction before they decided to move Chapman back into the closing role, so ignore the part about the closers. Still a very good team.
2. Brewers. Probably overrating them…but the lineup is impressive. They led the league in Home Runs last year AFTER losing Prince Fielder. They also led the league in Stolen Bases….first team in 20 years to do both. Corey Hart is out for a month, but once he is back, the only question mark is Jean Segura…who I have a very good feeling about. He could develop into a Hanley Ramirez type. The question is the pitching. Yovani is very good, and I still think they’ll sign Kyle Lohse. Lots of questions after that. My feeling is that some of the youngsters will succeed, some will struggle. But there are enough of them that they’ll find a mix. The bullpen is improved (just by letting KRod go…but also by some good signings. Wildcard team? Maybe/maybe not. I hope so.As I stated, I will defend what I said about them. Yes, I overestimated them with the 2nd place prediction, but they have played most of the season without their 3,4,and 5 hitters. They have not yet had their entire starting lineup in for a single game. The injuries have been nothing short of devastating. Braun hasn't been healthy since he first hurt his thumb on May 9th. Aramis Ramirez is on the DL for the 3rd time already. Corey Hart is out for the season. Bright spots in Segura and Gomez, though, and Weeks/LuCroy are coming on...too little too late. The bullpen has been great, but the starters were awful until the last 3-4 weeks. Stabilizing. But the injuries have ruined their chances.
3. Cardinals. They always find a way. I see a lot of holes here, but I can’t count them out. Wainwright should be fine, but Carpenter is done. That leaves Westbrook as your #2. Not impressed. There is a nice mix of young and old in the lineup, but not enough world beaters to overtake Milwaukee. The pen is solid. They've been so much better than I thought. Hate admitting, but this is just a great organization from top to bottom. Where do they keep finding these arms?
4. Pirates. One of these years, they’ll finally turn the corner. They’ve spent the last 2 seasons on the verge. But late season fades have doomed them. It has led to tinkering, when what they really needed was patience with the young talent. That has led to a team of young blossoming superstars and past-their-prime vets. With AJ Burnett as your ace, you aren’t making the playoffs. Sorry They have been GREAT. But they are going to fade. The streak of losing seasons will end, but I'm not convinced of a playoff run...Grilli and Melancon are overworked, and that will expose the rotation. But it's still a good team..
5. Cubs. The losing continues. I see Castro/Rizzo/Samardzija and a bunch of stiffs. Not much to say…they backed themselves into this corner with a bunch of bad contracts….but they are almost out from under them. They could improve soon, but not in 2013. I was right. That is all.
The Brewers have played better of late. The Pirates will continue to win, but not as much. The Reds will stay in the race. The Cubs continue to lose.
1. Cardinals
2. Reds
3. Pirates
4. Brewers
5. Cubs
NL WEST
You have the new-era Dodgers (AKA-the West Coast Yankees), and the pitching heavy Giants. You have the scrappy D-Backs, and the improving Padres. I don’t know what to make of the Rockies. Most people are picking the Dodgers to go to the World Series, and they might be right. But the Giants could give them a run… See my comments about the Angels when it comes to the Dodgers. But they've been better after a slow start...since the Puig callup. In the second half, they will continue to win, despite him. See below.
1. Dodgers. They are talented and they are deep. The only real questions here are about the bounce-back ca ndidate players (also known as the “Red Sox Connection”). Can Beckett return to form? Can Crawford play at all? What about Hanley? AGone? I’d say most of them will be fine…at least good enough to make the Dodgers the champs of the West. Deep, top-heavy rotation. Deep, top-heavy pen. Lineup with no real holes in it. Can’t see them failing. I'm going to say it now...I did see Yasil Puig coming. I study the minors more than most people, and I knew he'd be good. But he is playing so far over his head, he is due for a MAJOR market correction. But he did help the Dodgers get their heads out of their asses. I see Puig hitting about .230 in the second half...and the rest of the team picking him up. They'll still win the division.
2. Giants. But the Champs will give them a run. That rotation is so good, especially if Lincecum can bounce back (I’d bet he’ll improve, but not back to Cy Young form). Cain and Bum are Cy Young candidates. Lincecum/Vogelsong are solid at 3-4. I don’t like Zito, but as a #5, why not? But the offense lacks power (so Jon will love them). They’ll compete, but fall short.They have been worse than expected...but not for the reasons I expected. Even Cain has been subpar. This team won 2 of the last 3 World Series, so they can't be called a fraud, but they sure are playing like it!
3. Diamondbacks I do like this team. A lot of very good players who fit the style of the Manager. But with this many very good players, I don’t see any great players. With no real superstars, I see them falling short. Kennedy should be a #2 somewhere, not an ace. They've been good for the very reasons I predicted. But they shouldn't be first place good, and I will stick to that. They will be overtaken.
4. Padres. This is a team that is emerging, but I think they are a year away. They could surprise, but a lot of the comments I made about Arizona hold true here. No stars. Nobody is great, but a few of them could get there. Wait a year before buying in. Another accurate prediction. I still like the future here, but not the present.
5. Rockies. Until they figure out how to run a major league pitching staff, they will be a basement candidate. What’s up with the 75-pitch limit? The pitching is awful. And it’s too bad, because there is star power here, with Tulo and CarGo. I like a lot of the others players as well, but they just won’t get it done without pitching. They've surprised me. I still can't figure out how they're winning as much as they are. And even that has them under .500. They'll fade.
Not my best set of predictions so far. This seems like a tough division to call every year.
1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks
3. Giants
4. Rockies
5. Padres
AL WILD CARD: Detroit vs. Toronto
Winner: Detroit
Oakland vs. Tampa
Winner: Tampa
ALDS: Detroit vs.Los Angeles & Baltimore vs. Kansas City
Winner: Los Angeles & Baltimore
Baltimore vs. Texas & Detroit vs. Tampa
Winners: Baltimore & Detroit
ALCS:: Los Angeles v. Baltimore
Winner: Los Angeles
Baltimore vs. Detroit
Winner: Baltimore
NL WILD CARD: San Francisco v. Atlanta
Winner: Atlanta
Washington vs. Cincinnati
NLDS: Atlanta vs. Los Angeles & Washington vs. Cincinnati
Winners: Atlanta & Washington
Atlanta vs. Cincinnati & Los Angeles vs. St. Louis
Winners: Atlanta & Los Angeles
NLCS: Atlanta v. Washington
Winner: Washington
Atlanta vs. Los Angeles
Winner: Atlanta
WORLD SERIES: Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Winner: Washington
Atlanta vs. Baltimore
There. I did it. I predicted the former Expos to go all the way. A risky pick, but they have all of the pieces in place. Healthy, they will be formidable. Of course my predictions will almost assure a WS matchup between Pittsburgh and the White Sox, but whatever.
Not what I had picked originally, but I did say at the beginning that I could easily see Atlanta taking the East over Washington, so it doesn't feel like a stretch to put them into the WS in place of the Nats.
AL MVP: Josh Hamilton Um, No.
Miguel Cabrera. (But Davis could steal it.)
NL MVP: Matt Kemp What happened to this guy?!?!?
Yadir Molina
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale Has been good, but not Cy Young good.
Tough one here. I'll go with King Felix, but don't feel good about it
NL Cy Young: Stephen StrassburgHasn't been as good this year.
Clayton Kershaw
AL Comeback POY: Mariano Rivera Yes. Slam dunk winner
Mariano Rivera
NL Comeback POY: Roy Halladay Injury ended that one.
Cliff Lee. I picked the wrong Phillies ace.
AL Rookie of Year: Dylan Bundy Can't win if you're not pitching.
Not as many standouts as there are in the NL. I'm going with Leonys Martin
NL Rookie of Year: Tyler SkaggsAlso hasn't pitched enough.
Right now, Puig is the obvious choice, but I think he'll fade. I'm going with Shelby Miller.
Re: 2013 Baseball Thread
Posted: July 22, 2013 8:26 pm
by CaptainP
I posted this on Facebook, thought I would share it here for those of you who I do not yet have as FB friends:
For those fans of other teams who are being so quick to jump all over the Ryan Braun story, let me say this:
Yes, he cheated. Worse, he got caught.
What do I mean by that?
Based on the current state of PEDs, you have to be unlucky enough to be tested within 24 hours of taking something these days. Based upon the frequency at which players are randomly tested, MLB believes that they are actually catching 1% of the people who are cheating. Let me repeat that....1%. Not counting other potential upcoming BioGenisis suspensions, there have been 35 players suspended by MLB in 8 years. That's an average of 4.5 players per year. Do the math, that means there are potentially 450 players or so who are cheating. There are 30 MLB teams with 25 players apiece. That's 750 players. That would make 60% of all players in the Major Leagues guilty of cheating.
Yes, what Braun did was wrong, but he is not alone. Cubs fans...Dodgers fans....fans of any team, if you think your heroes are clean, dream on. They just haven't been caught. Yet.
