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My limited understanding of Hurricanes( and I may be wrong...)

storm surge is worse on the Southeast part of the storm ( that makes since to me be cause the water is being pushed from that direction....

but the wind is worse on the Northeast portion.....Not sure why...

It looks like KW is missing out on the small area of the most intense winds, even for being so close to the eye as per radar. I don't know how bad the rain is but my weathergeek sources tell me Rita is moving faster than Katrina was when she passed over south FL so I think that will keep rain totals down.

Edit - removed the link because it was automatically updating and taking up too much space

sunseeker wrote:My limited understanding of Hurricanes( and I may be wrong...)

storm surge is worse on the Southeast part of the storm ( that makes since to me be cause the water is being pushed from that direction....

but the wind is worse on the Northeast portion.....Not sure why...

Wind is worse in the NE quad, and surge is the worst wherever the winds come directly onshore, which may or may not be the southeastern side of the storm depending on the geography. The amount of time a storm has to pile up water ahead of it affects the size of the surge as well.

I'm beginning to think I was a meteorologist in a past life

They key is the tides. Key West's highest elevation is 16 feet, most is at or near sea level. High tide and a 6-9 foot surge could be disasterous

Cubbie Bear wrote:They key is the tides. Key West's highest elevation is 16 feet, most is at or near sea level. High tide and a 6-9 foot surge could be disasterous

Very true. Tides often compound the problem. Here's the latest from the NWS local statement:

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER
KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED WATER AND WAVE
ACTION OVER THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY AT 73.5 MILE MARKER IS IMPASSABLE AND HAS BEEN BARRICADED TO
ALL TRAFFIC. OTHER SPECIFIC AREAS ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY WHICH ARE
SEEING ENCROACHING WATER INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING...MILE MARKER
11...MILE MARKERS 34 THROUGH 35...MILE MARKER 58...MILE MARKER
62...MILE MARKER 68...MILE MARKERS 85 THROUGH 87...AND MILE MARKER
110. STORM SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD THIS
EVENING AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR
CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR IS AT
1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY

Thankfully, they downgraded thier surge forecast to 4-6 ft. Hopefully the worst of Rita will have passed these areas by high tide. Also it's fortunate that astronomical high tides occurred a few days before with the full moon.

Rita is expected to make a FULL CAT IV status before she parties on the mainland.......most projections have her going feet dry somewhere just south of Houston.....

The tornadoes and worst part come off of the Northeast side. No idea how big Rita is going to grow in size.........but it is apparent that the outer bands are going to be felt very far away....and along most of the Gulf coast...and Mexico.

Storm surge damage has alot to do with the tides......if they occur at high tide or low tide..... The northeast side is the stongest and most powerful side of the hurricane....

It depends on where you are in relation to the storm.....Consider a hurricane like a backwards moving clock, as the hands go around....the winds are going to shift in directions...just as the hands of the clock travel up one side and down the other.....and then back up..... the winds of the hurricane do the same....

So, as the storm makes landfall the stronger winds will push the surge higher from the right side/north east side.....and away to the left and perhaps South. As the storm makes landfall and reaches shallower water....it "SHOULD immediately LOSE" intensity... then again...depending upon the size and strength and speed of the storm......As the storm turns and winds shift,.... where it was blowing and forcing water inland....it may well be acting as a suction and drawing it back out.....the speed and strength of the storm has alot to do with it as well as does the rainfall....

The weakest part of the storm will be the west to southwest quadrant ...as the winds come around and have to maintain their "push" and then regain the suction back to the north/northeast...I may well be wrong, PLEASE, I ask anyone for help on this, but as the winds of the storm make the turn back around to the south and east....they tend do be less damaging and losing stength. The tornadoes and most severe damage occur on the right hand side of the storm..... I do know I have personaly seen and experienced the storm surge effects from a hurricaine, 400-600 miles out......I could place my elbow down on top of a piling and lean DOWN on it, that I normally had to reach up to, to rest my fingers on. It was REALLY weird at the time.....

>>>>NOTE<<<<< !! This only applies to hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere.... It will be opposite for "typhoons" / hurricanes occuring in the Southern Hemisphere!!!


The following is a quote from NOAA Hazards of the Storm Surge... There are links for the storm surge and you can see the effects of a storm surge upon Brunswick,Georgia...from a CAT II through a CAT V hurricane simulated in photos.... and from CAT II through IV for Long Island, NY.

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/surge.htm

Obviously, the more intense the storm, and the closer you are to its right-front quadrant, the larger the area you will have to evacuate. The problem is, how do you know what category storm is going to hit you? We'll discuss this more in the Forecasting section, but you know enough about the basics of the hurricane life cycle to know that hurricanes change. And you know from your own experience that forecasts are not perfect. As an emergency manager, you have to balance that uncertainty with the risk of significant economic damage (from evacuating too large an area, particularly if the storm loses strength) and the risk to your population if you can't get them out of the threatened areas in time. One main rule of thumb for emergency management is to plan for a storm one category higher than what is forecast. This is a reasonable precaution to help minimize the loss of life from hurricanes.

Wave and current action associated with the tide also causes extensive damage. Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard; extended pounding by frequent waves can demolish any structure not specifically designed to withstand such forces.

Then there is this from: http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... ct=anatomy

Low pressure in the hurricane can act as a plunger, slightly pulling up the water level. However, the components that contribute to the greatest storm surge affect are the winds blowing to the left side of the storm and the topography of the land as the storm makes land fall. The strongest surge comes ashore just to the right of the eye, where the fierce hurricane winds are blowing toward land. Winds on the left side of the storm might actually cause the water level to run slightly lower than normal. Higher water level allows waves to strike farther inland, causing massive property damage.

Also you might want to look at this:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html

I hope this helps....."Hurricane conduct" is not a perfect science as of yet.... we can only make predictions and draw partial conclusions based upon PAST performances....."SORT OF" like playing the stock market......

All in all there's been worse. Flooding along the whole area, occasional wind damage. It's really not the winds all the time from the storm itself, but also the tornado activity that gets spawned off from these things.

My sandbags did the job this time. And I didn't even need to fire off any rounds.

It looks like the Shrine did its job again. Rita is past KW, sounds like minimal flooding. Roads are open (there was a report yesterday that US1 was closed/washed out...), and residents are being allowed back in. Tourists, due in on Friday at the earliest.

Now.. Cat4 (projection) going over the top of Galveston and Houston come weekend...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW
ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA


Getting stronger and bigger.

F'N BLEEP!!!!!

NHC says Rita has made CAT V!!! SUSTAINED WINDS AT 165 MPH.

Sam wrote:F'N BLEEP!!!!!

NHC says Rita has made CAT V!!! SUSTAINED WINDS AT 165 MPH.

OMG! Be safe Texas, Mexico, etc.???

This says it all.... Look at the size of this monster!
I HOPE the image will work.... if not copy and paste the URL in a new browser!!!

Currenhtly the news just reported the Barometric pressure is down to 914mb!!! F'N BLEEP!!!

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 17


Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on September 21, 2005


...Rita reaches 165 mph winds...becomes an extremely dangerous
category five hurricane...the second of the 2005 season...

at 4 PM CDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Gulf of
Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
east of Cameron to Grand Isle Louisiana and from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for the northeast coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando
northward.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of dangerous Hurricane Rita.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.4 north...longitude 86.8 west or about 600 miles
east-southeast of Galveston Texas and about 700 miles east-southeast
of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...with higher gusts. Rita
is an extremely dangerous category five hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles.

Pressure has been falling rapidly during the day and the latest
minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 914 mb...26.99 inches.
Tides are currently running near normal along the Mississippi and
Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those
areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet over the next 24 hours with
large waves on top and residents there could experience flooding.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...24.4 N... 86.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...165 mph.
Minimum central pressure...914 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Avila

If anyone reading this needs a place to ride out the storm in the Dallas area, send me a PM...

Four Play wrote:If anyone reading this needs a place to ride out the storm in the Dallas area, send me a PM...

what a generous offer, Four Play . .! !

phins up to ya . . .! !

Four Play wrote:If anyone reading this needs a place to ride out the storm in the Dallas area, send me a PM...

KEWL BEANS and most Generous and kind offer!!!
Bro you better be hunkered down there and be prepared for a few days, as well....No doubt you are gonna feel some of Rita's wrath too...at least alot of rain if nothing else... This is one huge BLEEPING F'N storm, I know I am not telling you anything you don't know,... but it could probably cover Texas.

Chance are that Rita is gonna drop down to at least a CAT IV before going feet dry...She is already being called the 3rd strongest storm ever by some....

Wishing you and everyone in her path all the very best and may God keep y'all safe and free from harm.
Run like a scalded dog on steroids and like Hell is after you, and don't look back, and when you get to where your going....hunker down, hang tough, and stay safe.

Sam wrote:Chance are that Rita is gonna drop down to at least a CAT IV before going feet dry...She is already being called the 3rd strongest storm ever by some....

Per barometric pressure, at her strongest of 897 mb she is third only to 1988's Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb - the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that struck the Keys (892 mb).

The lower the pressure, the faster the winds.

Blonde Stranger wrote:

Sam wrote:Chance are that Rita is gonna drop down to at least a CAT IV before going feet dry...She is already being called the 3rd strongest storm ever by some....

Per barometric pressure, at her strongest of 897 mb she is third only to 1988's Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb - the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that struck the Keys (892 mb).

The lower the pressure, the faster the winds.

I'd really rather not have to see them putting up a memorial like the one on Lower Matacumbe.